Football fans tend to identify with the sport at one or both of two levels: club and national team. However, the utterly global nature of the game makes it possible to identify at a third level: continental. It seems bizarre that we could categorize entire continents into buckets that we could then compare, discuss, and argue. What ties say Ireland and Bulgaria together, or South Korea and Qatar, beyond geological boundaries of continents? ((Geological boundaries which football’s governing bodies have cheerfully ignored with the likes of Israel, Georgia, Armenia, and Kazakhstan plying away in “Europe” and Australia a recent member of the Asians.))
| Continent | # of 2014 Participants |
| Africa | 5 |
| Asia | 4 |
| Europe | 13 |
| N America | 4 |
| S America | 6 |
Regardless, continental policy matters. It is how FIFA decides on the number of teams that a given continent can provide to the World Cup. One of the narratives of the current World Cup ponders whether global football power is shifting away from the Old World. ((http://www.bbc.com/sport/0/football/28117029 and http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/jun/28/continental-shift-world-cup)) A relatively miniscule cadre of six European teams survived the group stages and many have disdained even that number as supposed lightweights Switzerland and Greece had also snuck in. So is the rest of the world catching up to Europe?
The answer is no – although it also matters of course how you define “catching up.” While it is true that Europe has underperformed in the group stages in the past two tournaments, the continent has remained firmly entrenched at the most elite levels of the competition. After a poor showing in the group stages this year, four European teams have reached the quarterfinals. In 2010, only three European sides made the quarterfinals, the only time since 1986 that Europe has had fewer than half of the last eight. Of course, all three of those teams made the semifinals. However, it was only as recently as 2006 that Europe had six of the eight quarterfinalists. 2006 was also the last time the World Cup was in Europe.
| Continent | 2014 Games | 2014 Points | 2014 Points per Game |
| S America | 19 | 44 | 2.32 |
| Europe | 33 | 55 | 1.67 |
| N America | 15 | 18 | 1.20 |
| Africa | 16 | 9 | 0.56 |
| Asia | 11 | 3 | 0.27 |
European struggles in this tournament come as no surprise. European teams have always fared poorly away from their continent. This phenomenon does not limit itself to Europe: South American teams have performed poorly in Europe. Africa, North America, and Asia have been poor everywhere.
The following chart plots the points per game for both Europe and South America. Only games contested against another continent are considered. Wins are allotted three points, draw one, and everything else (including penalty shoot-outs) zero.
The pattern is apparent: every year the World Cup is in Europe, European points per game are much higher whereas South America excels on the other continents. The sole exception is 1958, hosted in Sweden, where European sides were outclassed by their South American opponents. European performance has been on par with its record at previous tournaments on other continents. The years go by, the teams alter, the strategies change but Europe shows a continuous, obstinate inability to replicate results at home on other continents.
The Cream Rises
Despite overall poorer results away from home, European teams have been location-agnostic in dominating the elite stages of tournament beginning with the quarterfinals. True, Europe has not won outside of Europe. But it’s had a team in every final since 1950, including six all-European affairs. Only once has Europe placed fewer than two teams in the semifinals and that was in the first tournament in 1930. In 12 of 16 tournaments which had a semifinals stage, Europe had three representatives in the semifinals. The trend has not abated in recent times. Seven out of the past eight semi-finalists have been European. ((Brazil and Argentina have both missed the last four in the past two tournaments. They have also never been in the semi-finals in the same tournament.))
While Europe’s raw numbers are flamboyantly impressive, South America has also punched above its weight. Despite typically having no more than five participants, South America regularly has a representative in the semi-finals although their quarter-finals representation has been middling. However, in the past two years, South America has addressed that weakness as well. With four quarterfinalists in 2010 and three this year, South America has seen a hefty increase in their expected proportion of quarterfinalists.
The following charts show Europe and South America’s representation in the quarterfinals and semifinals. They plot the difference between actual proportion (# of teams from continent in the phase divided by total teams in the phase) and expected proportion (# of teams from continent in entire tournament divided by number of teams in the tournament).
Europe isn’t faltering. It’s as good as or even better than it’s ever been. Meanwhile, South America has built on its customary excellence. Worryingly, the two continents with the deepest traditions have been growing in their power, denying Africa, North America, and Asia not only shots at the semifinals but now also at the quarterfinals. Only two of the past 24 quarterfinalists have hailed from those three continents. ((Even including 2002, when everything went to hell, only six of the past 64 quarterfinals have come from outside of Europe or South America.))
Variety is the spice of life
What’s further quite impressive about European football is the number of different countries who can contend for the latest reaches of the tournament. Yes, Europe has its usual suspects: Germany, Italy, and France. ((France are a strange case – they’ve made four semi-finals since 1982, tied for the second most, but have also missed two tournaments and self-destructed in the first round in two others)). However, beyond the core contenders, they have countries that are always just on the edge and make it in once a while, as well as the “golden generation” nations that contend in one or two tournaments with a fortuitous coming-together of abundant talent in a single generation. Fourteen different European countries have made it to the semi-finals since 1982 – with only four making it on multiple occasions. Fourteen! That’s more than they currently have slots in the tournament. South America has had three while the last country in was South Korea in its outrageously controversial and outrageously entertaining run in 2002.
| Country | Appearances since 1982 |
| (West) Germany | 6 |
| France | 4 |
| Italy | 4 |
| Brazil | 3 |
| Netherlands | 2 |
| Argentina | 2 |
| Portugal | 1 |
| Bulgaria | 1 |
| Belgium | 1 |
| Spain | 1 |
| Croatia | 1 |
| Sweden | 1 |
| Poland | 1 |
| Turkey | 1 |
| England | 1 |
| Uruguay | 1 |
| Korea Republic | 1 |
Europe has given us not only the usual elites but the most unexpected surprises as well. Bulgaria’s strident dismissal of Germany in 1994. Croatia pushing France to the brink in 1998. Turkey going toe-to-toe with Brazil in 2002. The rest of the world finally has an opportunity to provide a new addition to the honor roll of classic bracket-busters. If Costa Rica can shock the Netherlands, a country outside of the South America and Europe will make the semi-finals for only the third time ever! ((Besides South Korea in 2002, the only other semi-finalist outside of Europe and SA is the USA in the very first tournament in 1930)).
Hello, world, are you there?
The inability of Asia, Africa, and North America to close the gap or even begin to close the gap between themselves and the European sides is discouraging. Africa has been particularly disappointing as the continent has been producing top-level talent for years but the national sides have floundered. Sides like Nigeria in the 90s and Ivory Coast recently have squandered very talented squads. Perhaps the narrative around African failures shifts if Luis Suarez doesn’t infamously parry a goalbound shot against Ghana in 2010 – but the shift would be slight as one serious contender for a semifinalist slot in all of World Cup history is still a paltry return.
Asia meanwhile continues as the deadweight. Despite the increase in Asian players plying their trade at the highest levels of European football, there has been no noticeable improvement at the national team level. Furthermore, hope remains dim for countries with huge populations like China, India, and Malaysia to make any sort of international impact – so dim they don’t even factor in any conversations.
The balance of global power isn’t shifting – it’s consolidating. Still, this year’s quarter-finals may change the story dramatically. Europe is guaranteed one slot and can see as many as three nations place in the final four. Will having only one country in the semifinals change everything that has been said above? Quite likely yes. Meanwhile, Costa Rica may become the first CONCACAF team since 1930 to reach the semi-finals. Based on history though I would expect the following: at least two European representatives in the semi-finals and a non-European champion.